Sin … Sin … Sin …Gularity
Say what, you say? What is a singularity? Well, it can mean different things in different contexts, but basically it is the idea of some measurable quantity approaching a limit, like infinity, where in the extreme there can be no understandable value. Let's take a real example.
Here we see CPU processor speed graphed against time. This is an example of an exponential graph, where the speed keeps accelerating, not just going up, but at an ever increasing rate. If the speed kept increasing at the same rate as shown on the graph, in another 10-20 years it would reach a point where it was undefinable, and beyond anything we might know or could explain currently. You might say in the limiting case the CPU speed would be such that it would take 0 time for a calculation. But what does instantaneous calculation really mean?
Next we see a graph which is increasing more and more rapidly also. But this one looks like it is going up at approximately the same rate. That is because the vertical scale is what is called a logarithmic scale. On the left-hand vertical scale each gradation upwards represents 10 times the previous value. So you can see that the number transistors per chip has indeed been going up more and more rapidly.
The rest of the graphs will all have logarithmic scales. So you can see the trend here. Many many areas of technology are increasing in power not just on a steady basis but exponentially. The increase is increasing.
It is the contention of Ray Kurzweil in his book The Singularity is Near that our advances in technology is reaching a singularity point. More specifically that our technologies in certain areas are advancing so quickly that in the not distant future they will advance beyond any conception of what we might even conceive of at this point. That Humanity will reach a totally undefined, unfathomable level. But lets take the areas one at a time.
He breaks these major areas of advance down into three categories: Genetics, Nanotechnology, and Robotics, alias Artificial Intelligence (AI). Part of this process, he believes, is that man will transcend his current biological limitations and become a part biological, part computer machine individual.
Genetics is the first to come to fruition. Through DNA manipulation and various technologies now being worked on Kurzweil feels that all human disease and maladies will be handled. Any tissues and organs in the body can be replaced, and new ones grown, either in the body or in the lab. He even feels that the body could be improved upon and re-designed for more efficiency. Everyone could have a new body basically with replaced body parts and cured of all diseases. Kurzweil projects that these advances will come to fruition in the next 10 to 15 years.
Next comes Nanotechnology. Now it starts to get really wild. Nanotechnology deals with building and using little molecule sized machines to perform tasks at the molecular or atomic size level. These little machines or robots, called nanobots, can be programmed to do jobs we can't easily accomplish. They can also communicate with each other and network, and communicate with a central computer. In mass numbers they can do incredible feats at incredible speeds. There is a huge amount research and current applications already developed in the Nanotechnology field and it is advancing incredibly quickly. Some of the proposed uses for humans is to replace the bacteria in the intestinal tract with nanobots who can decide what nutrients are needed by the body and pass all the other 'food' out. This would allow individuals to eat any thing they wanted and as much as they wanted and only get healthy benefits from it. Another idea is to replace the red blood cells with nanobots. It is calculated that delivering oxygen and the other functions of these cells could be done enormously more efficiently. Basically, there are plans to re-engineer many of the organs in the body, and indeed the whole body to be much much more efficient and durable. A bit like Superman, only for real. This technology is projected to be available by 2030.
And then there is robotics, or more importantly Artificial Intelligence. People in this field honestly believe that they can reverse engineer the human brain. There are projects going on now. They also believe that they can come up with computer programs that are as intelligent as any human, and are indistinguishable. There is a thing called a Turing Test, developed by Alan Turing, an early pioneer of computer theory, which postulates that a computer is as intelligent as a human if you can have a conversation with it, separated by walls, and you can't tell the difference between the computer and a person. You would be able to asked and answer questions, joke, do whatever you would with a human. Well, people in AI are convinced the time will come. They think its just a matter of having enough computing power, and memory. Just think of a computer program that you could discuss philosophy with, tells jokes, talk of ethics, etc., yet it could calculate thousands of times faster than you and had access to all the knowledge accumulated by humans and computers. Such a computer could then come up with plans to re-design itself. It could even control machinery and reproduce itself. This has been the subject of Science Fiction in the past, but this time its for real.
Now think of the possibilities of putting some of this computing power to use on a personal basis. It is proposed that we have computers linked to our brains, as implants, so that we can access much much more data and at lightning speeds. Instead of having to go to the Internet (or library) and research a topic, you could just instantly access the data through your implant. The whole area of human-machine fusion is being actively explored. Again, cyborgs used to be just in the domain of science fiction and comic books, but this is for real. Kurzweil thinks, from his calculations, that the age of man-machine intelligence, and advanced AI will fully arrive before 2040.
So where does this all lead? Well that is the big question. Thats where the singularity comes in. Technology, humankind, and the world as we know it is all changing at such a rapid pace that by the year 2040 we will all be in totally undefined territory.
Here is wishing you a bright new future!
See Kurzweil's website: http://www.kurzweilai.net/
Here we see CPU processor speed graphed against time. This is an example of an exponential graph, where the speed keeps accelerating, not just going up, but at an ever increasing rate. If the speed kept increasing at the same rate as shown on the graph, in another 10-20 years it would reach a point where it was undefinable, and beyond anything we might know or could explain currently. You might say in the limiting case the CPU speed would be such that it would take 0 time for a calculation. But what does instantaneous calculation really mean?
Next we see a graph which is increasing more and more rapidly also. But this one looks like it is going up at approximately the same rate. That is because the vertical scale is what is called a logarithmic scale. On the left-hand vertical scale each gradation upwards represents 10 times the previous value. So you can see that the number transistors per chip has indeed been going up more and more rapidly.
The rest of the graphs will all have logarithmic scales. So you can see the trend here. Many many areas of technology are increasing in power not just on a steady basis but exponentially. The increase is increasing.
It is the contention of Ray Kurzweil in his book The Singularity is Near that our advances in technology is reaching a singularity point. More specifically that our technologies in certain areas are advancing so quickly that in the not distant future they will advance beyond any conception of what we might even conceive of at this point. That Humanity will reach a totally undefined, unfathomable level. But lets take the areas one at a time.
He breaks these major areas of advance down into three categories: Genetics, Nanotechnology, and Robotics, alias Artificial Intelligence (AI). Part of this process, he believes, is that man will transcend his current biological limitations and become a part biological, part computer machine individual.
Genetics is the first to come to fruition. Through DNA manipulation and various technologies now being worked on Kurzweil feels that all human disease and maladies will be handled. Any tissues and organs in the body can be replaced, and new ones grown, either in the body or in the lab. He even feels that the body could be improved upon and re-designed for more efficiency. Everyone could have a new body basically with replaced body parts and cured of all diseases. Kurzweil projects that these advances will come to fruition in the next 10 to 15 years.
Next comes Nanotechnology. Now it starts to get really wild. Nanotechnology deals with building and using little molecule sized machines to perform tasks at the molecular or atomic size level. These little machines or robots, called nanobots, can be programmed to do jobs we can't easily accomplish. They can also communicate with each other and network, and communicate with a central computer. In mass numbers they can do incredible feats at incredible speeds. There is a huge amount research and current applications already developed in the Nanotechnology field and it is advancing incredibly quickly. Some of the proposed uses for humans is to replace the bacteria in the intestinal tract with nanobots who can decide what nutrients are needed by the body and pass all the other 'food' out. This would allow individuals to eat any thing they wanted and as much as they wanted and only get healthy benefits from it. Another idea is to replace the red blood cells with nanobots. It is calculated that delivering oxygen and the other functions of these cells could be done enormously more efficiently. Basically, there are plans to re-engineer many of the organs in the body, and indeed the whole body to be much much more efficient and durable. A bit like Superman, only for real. This technology is projected to be available by 2030.
And then there is robotics, or more importantly Artificial Intelligence. People in this field honestly believe that they can reverse engineer the human brain. There are projects going on now. They also believe that they can come up with computer programs that are as intelligent as any human, and are indistinguishable. There is a thing called a Turing Test, developed by Alan Turing, an early pioneer of computer theory, which postulates that a computer is as intelligent as a human if you can have a conversation with it, separated by walls, and you can't tell the difference between the computer and a person. You would be able to asked and answer questions, joke, do whatever you would with a human. Well, people in AI are convinced the time will come. They think its just a matter of having enough computing power, and memory. Just think of a computer program that you could discuss philosophy with, tells jokes, talk of ethics, etc., yet it could calculate thousands of times faster than you and had access to all the knowledge accumulated by humans and computers. Such a computer could then come up with plans to re-design itself. It could even control machinery and reproduce itself. This has been the subject of Science Fiction in the past, but this time its for real.
Now think of the possibilities of putting some of this computing power to use on a personal basis. It is proposed that we have computers linked to our brains, as implants, so that we can access much much more data and at lightning speeds. Instead of having to go to the Internet (or library) and research a topic, you could just instantly access the data through your implant. The whole area of human-machine fusion is being actively explored. Again, cyborgs used to be just in the domain of science fiction and comic books, but this is for real. Kurzweil thinks, from his calculations, that the age of man-machine intelligence, and advanced AI will fully arrive before 2040.
So where does this all lead? Well that is the big question. Thats where the singularity comes in. Technology, humankind, and the world as we know it is all changing at such a rapid pace that by the year 2040 we will all be in totally undefined territory.
Here is wishing you a bright new future!
See Kurzweil's website: http://www.kurzweilai.net/
posted by Eclectricz at
7:24 PM
